One subject may rile up Westchester County voters even more than high property taxes — and that’s President Donald Trump.
A Democratic avalanche buried Republican candidates all over Westchester County in Tuesday’s elections, with George Latimer at the top of the ticket unseating Republican County Executive Rob Astorino in a landslide victory.
With a new energy among progressives after Trump’s election last year, the “Trump factor” turned out to be very real.
“There can be no possible doubt anymore,” Barry Caro, a Democratic strategist, said Wednesday. “The strategy that Republicans used effectively to say ‘those are national issues, those are state issues, they don’t matter in this race,’ it clearly mattered last night up and down Westchester.”
Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1 in the county, and in presidential races the area is reliably Democratic — Trump netted 31 percent in the presidential race.
Yet Astorino defied those numbers twice, in part by focusing on holding the line on county property taxes. The message had broad appeal in Westchester, where property owners pay the highest taxes in the country.
In 2013, Astorino shrugged off comparisons to the national tea party movement from his opponent Noam Bramson. Caro, who worked on that campaign, said there was no shaking off the comparisons to Trump this time.
Just looking at campaign lawn signs in local races, Democratic candidates seemed more likely to tout their party affiliation than Republicans. Caro said that wasn’t an accident.
“It’s just more proof that people are catching on and that the Republican brand in the suburbs and in Westchester is catastrophically bad right now,” he said.
‘Worst day‘ for county GOP
County Legislator Jim Maisano, a New Rochelle Republican who was elected unopposed, said that Tuesday was the worst day for the county GOP since 1992, when he got involved in local politics.
Maisano is vice chairman of the Board of Legislators, which is run by a coalition of the Republican caucus and two Democrats. But Democrats added three to their nine-person majority on the board and have toppled the existing leadership structure.
“We lost the county executive’s office and we lost the bipartisan coalition that was running the Board of Legislators and we didn’t even lose it on the issues, we lost it on an anti-Trump tidal wave,” Maisano said. “As long as Trump is the president and he‘s this unpopular in Westchester, it looks like Republicans are going to have a very tough time getting elected.”
Doug Colety, chairman of the county GOP, called the result a backlash and said it was an anti-party rather than anti-candidate vote. He viewed this year as the political pendulum swinging against his party.
“This was bad but we have been here before,” he said. “It‘s much harder for Republicans here, but we‘ve done well, we‘re capable of rebuilding, we do have a good grassroots organization so we have no choice but to rebuild and move forward.”
Guns, immigration local issues
From the start of the campaign, Latimer continually looked to link Astorino to Trump both by association and policies. Astorino had supported Trump once he locked up the GOP nomination for president in 2016 and they appeared together at the state Conservative Party dinner last year.
Some federally-tinged issues became local issues when legislative fights broke out over a proposed ban on gun shows at the Westchester County Center and a bill that would’ve offered protections to undocumented immigrants.
Astorino vetoed the gun-show ban and the Democratic-backed Immigrant Protection Act. Latimer has said he’d approve a ban and a pro-undocumented immigrant law when taking office.
When it came out that Trump supporter and Breitbart funder Robert Mercer donated more than $1 million to a pro-Astorino PAC, that sent a message to voters, said Shannon Powell, co-founder of the progressive group Indivisible Westchester.
“They could connect the dots between what’s happening in Washington to what’s happening on the ground here,” Powell said. “And they see that that’s the best way to build that wall of resistance, literally in your own backyard…If you want protections, you need to start at home.”
Indivisible is part of a national movement that was sparked after Trump’s election last November. Powell said the victories in county races served as a “training ground” for state and federal races in 2018.
Bellwether?
The race has been one to watch in the state and even in the nation because pundits have called it a bellwether that could indicate which way the political wind will blow in midterm federal elections and state races, Democratic Party Chairman Reggie LaFayette said.
“So, I think this means a lot even going into the gubernatorial race next year and it means a lot after next year heading into the next presidential election,” he said. “These words that (state Sen.) Andrea Stewart-Cousin said, ‘when Democrats vote, Democrats win.’”
Stewart-Cousins, a Yonkers Democrat who heads the Democratic Conference in the Senate, said on Election Night she viewed the results of local races as an indicator people were paying attention and understanding policy issues.
“This is an important moment” she said. “It’s a moment that hopefully is duplicated all over the state and all over the country.”
Astorino had also said he‘d consider running for governor again in 2018, but his defeat likely pushes him far down the list of front runners, even if he‘s still interested in the seat.
Bill O‘Reilly, a Republican strategist who ran Astorino‘s campaign, said 2018 could be a rough ride if anyone wants to jump into the race. Republicans are in a situation where they face anti-Trump fervor but risk losing the GOP base by coming out against him too strongly.
“No question it’s not just Westchester but Nassau, Virginia, the results across the country it’s a a five-alarm fire bell for 2018.” O‘Reilly said. “There’s going to be hell to pay if a new strategy isn’t found.”
Turnout up as Republicans sunk
Latimer beat Astorino 116,767 to 89,463, or by a 57-43 percent margin, according to unofficial counts from the county Board of Elections.
The 206,320 votes cast showed an uptick in turnout over the 2013 race, where fewer than 190,000 ballots were cast, according to canvassing numbers.
It’s only the second county race since 2001 in which more than 200,000 ballots were cast. Still, the number is far fewer than the amount of ballots cast during presidential elections in the county. In 2008, total ballots cast were 417,000, according to elections board canvassing totals.
Democrats will also strengthen their 9-to-8 majority on the county legislature. At least three Republican-held seats have flipped Democrats.
Latimer, fresh off his victory news Tuesday night, said proposal after proposal from the Trump administration has alienated voters and clashed with the average Westchester resident’s ideals.
“These things don’t impress moderates, progressives, independents, many Republicans,” Latimer said. “So, now we’re going to try in Westchester to govern with a reasonable approach to governance with dialogue, not just an imposition of an ideological agenda.”